Jan 31, 2008

One Man's Opinion.

Ok, so there's a lot of speculation going on about the end of this game today. I would like to put my two cents in concerning the finale.
First, from an earlier stage, we learned that The Maxwell Group is a subsidiary of Widmore Industries.

Second, we know that whatever ship Naomi came from is not Penny's boat.

Also, Naomi was in possession of the picture of Desmond and Penny.

Using these pieces of evidence, I am capable of coming to only one conclusion. Charles Widmore, the only other person in the world other than Penny or Desmond capable of possessing that photo, staged the fake plane in the bottom of the ocean for the purpose of ending Sam Thomas' and any other concerned party's search for Oceanic 815. I do not yet know why he is interested in the island, that remains to be seen. These are the conclusions which I have drawn:
There is no wormhole.
There is no time warp.
There is only one Oceanic 815. This is all just a result of a conspiracy. That seems plainly evident to me, thanks to the knowledge that Sam was practically forced to go to those coordinates by The Maxwell Group.

Note: Please do not discuss spoilers in the comments section. I made sure this theory was completely spoiler-free and only used information from the game and show thus far.


Jake Chambers said...

I kinda agree with you :D

notlost said...

nice theory hip..and not far off what i think myself..just one thing bothering me..one would think when sam finds the plane the NTSB or whatever would send down an RV...if so what did they find? what about the passengers? why was the plane found thousands of miles from where it should be?

Deneph said...

I still think it's odd that Sam wouldn't question why Talbot had the coordinates of the downed plane in his room. I mean, that's just too coincidental. Yeah, he had the Black Rock story of lots of locations, but to have those scribbled on a piece of paper sitting around in his room, that should really be questioned. I think the theory sounds like a good one.
I hate that Charles Widmore! [though part of me wishes I had his power to fake a whole plan crash, bodies included! No, I wouldn't do it, I just want the power to do it. :o)]
Damn you Widmore!

Ash said...

Also, interesting to note: Sam found Oceanic 815 a few weeks before Christmas. Naomi crashed on the island a week before Christmas. Both characters are generally within the same timeline of each other, give or take a week.

What puzzles me though is why no one questions the fact that Oceanic 815 was found way off course (off the coast of Bali)?

Wesh said...

I like that theory, especially because it doesn't incorporate ultra sci fi stuff like blunt timetravel, wormholes and such. I think that would be to easy on part of the writers, plus it leaves the way open for another surprising story line; Hopefully one that no one has mentioned or thought of (slim chances, but hey *fingers crossed*)

Wesh said...

Can we have a poll? :)
Do you think that characters from the ARG will appear in the lost tv show?
° yes
° no
° no, but I hope they will.
° Yes, but only in the background. Easter egg-like.

(this poll might be worthless if people have like spoilery casting knowledge. hmm, nevermind. :))

travis said...

The simplest answer is always the best...even on a show like Lost! Planting a dummy plane is heck of a lot easier to do than creating tear in the time space continuum.

Chris said...

Travis: agreed, I've always said that time warps and wormholes and stuff is way too complicated for a TV show. And honestly the only way they could pull it off would be if Ms. Hawking came out and was like "Well you see, what happened was..." and had this long explanation.

Thomasriekki said...

The game ended as a lot of us thought it would and I agree with your theory. ash, great timeline. I totally agree, except I'm wondering how Oceanic's first press release fits into this. It was dated December 2007 right? Isn't that 3 years ahead of when Naomi lands on the island?

unlocke said...

This is a rubbish theory!
why would Widmore try to fake the plane crash? No one on the plane has any direct connection with him. The Island can't be found anyway so why fake a plane crash at all. Sam wasn't even looking properly for the plane til he got the messages and set off on his merry adventure.
Tthere IS a time-warp in the show cos Desmond went back in time and can see his flashes of things to come.
My theory is that that IS the real Plane and at the end of the show they will find away to go back in time and never crash on the Island but end up there instead, hence not exposing the Island to the real bad guys that we are about to meet in season 3

Monk Satyr said...

Hipster Doofus said:
"There is no wormhole.
There is no time warp.
There is only one Oceanic 815. This is all just a result of a conspiracy. ... Sam was practically forced to go to those coordinates by The Maxwell Group."

yup I agree fully, the look on Talbot's face when the 'plane' came into view and Sam said it was 815 lead me to believe that Talbot was pleased with this discovery. Odd, considering that his stated purpose of the expedition was to find 'block rock'. Add in Sam's reaction to the new report, seems as if he is seeing his role of find 815 in a new (and sinister) light, and I think we have a new jump-off point for a new line in Sam's quest to find the truth of 815.

Chris said :
"the only way they could pull it off would be if Ms. Hawking came out and was like "Well you see, what happened was..." and had this long explanation."

I agree with this as well. I've been arguing this point with a friend of mine. Seems, to me, that to use something with the complexity and 'exotic' principles of 'light cones' (or other similar theories) is entirely too convoluted for a general audience. And I also like to believe that LOST will transcend theories of physics AND religion/belief. A kind of 'unifying theory' for both matter and 'spirit'. Here's to hoping :)

SpOOky said...

How do we know they didnt plant a dummy plane to hide that there is tear in the time space continuum. ;)

On a serious note:
Why would they need to fake a crash site?

Planes go missing and are never found, not much fuss is made about it.

But by having a Crash-site, you Invite questions about the location & possible investigation of the site itself to try and aquire the blackBox.

Better IMO to Not find the plane :)

Fat Lazy Guy said...

Yep, this is pretty much just confirms the popular theory.

JacksLostStepKid said...

So, I can see how the "second" 815 in the trench could be just an elaborate set up. I can see that Talbot is intentionally leading Sam to the finding of 815.

I still think there is something going on with time in the show. For one the picture was taken on the type of camara that takes a single photo with no negative or anything to later make a duplicate. They made a big deal about showing that there are two photos that exist now.

Also, the writers have stated that Desmond did really go back and time, and we've seen him glimpse the future.

So, I don't see how we can get away from at least some elements of time travel/timelines/etc.

I just really hope they don't go too far with it and go off the deep end. However they decide to integrate this whole time manipulation thing into the story really needs to be as simple and clean as possible.


PS just a thought, but what if Talbot is a part of the same people who are tied to the Jewelry Merchant and the head Monk? Kinda puts an interesting spin on it.

Hipster Doofus said...

I agree jlsk, there's definitely some time stuff going on in the show, and the producers responded in one of the podcasts to the question of how there could be multiple copies of the photograph. I don't remember what they said, but its definitely nothing conclusive. In my opinion, there is only one Oceanic 815. Why would Charles fake it? Maybe he has money in Oceanic and knew that by finding the plane he could help them move past the crash. Sam wasn't going to stop until he got answers, and he just got answers.

Andrew said...

What about a second plane? We've already seen the orchid station orientation film with the duplicating bunny (#15). The Casimir effect was also discuss, which is relevant in discussion of possible wormholes.

Terry said...

uh, unlocke, season 3 is way over. its the start of season 4 bud. you been on the island or something?

The Glass Eye said...

Hipster, I've had the exact same theory for a few weeks. The Sunda Trench crash site was to put to rest any further speculation by the families of the victims as to what happened with Flight 815 and allowing The Powers That Be to cover their tracks and keep the Island a secret.

Now the question is, just who are those Powers That Be? I think part of the overall mythology of the show is to reveal why the plane crashing on the Island is so important and who was linked to it in a grand sense.

Kaleidos said...

Hipster's theory sounds good to me. Everything works fine.
But during season 3 both Naomi and Cooper claimed there were no survivors on flight 815 (did they claim there were corpses inside the plane, too? Can't remember).
So if the plane was a fake either:

a) There were no corpses inside. Which I think would seem quite strange to the public opinion. All devoured by sharks or taken away by the tides? Mmh
b) There were (fake) corpses. That's a little more tricky than building a fake plane and sinking it, though, cause those corpses should conveniently lack fingerprints, toothprints and so on, and that would be, again, strange. Or should we think their (supposed) relatives would just be content with a "Uhm, yes, that piece of meat could be Mary"?

I still think it's the best theory we got, though :)...

Mary said...

Here's why I think the plane down there is not planted.

1- The best evidence that it is planted is the fact that someone had the coordinates to feed Sam before it was found. But Sam would have to be as smart as us and realize that. So taking Sam along if it WAS a plant is shooting yourself in the foot. He'd KNOW it and he'd PROVE it, by spilling that he was leaked the coordinates. Just like we do, he'd see that obviously they knew it was right there so they must've put it there.

I think they didn't put it there, but they know it's there. I think Talbot really was looking for the Black Rock, but he led Sam into coming and discovering 815, for some reason. The only reason I can think of to have Sam there is because now Maxwell/Widmore can't shut him up and keep that wreckage secret. Talbot couldn't 'discover' it on his Black Rock trip himself or his employers would just shut him up.

If they really did plant it, they would've done so in the flights' path, if they wanted to avert suspicion.

So I think we're back into sci fi territory. Either that or the writers did a lousy job, because why would Sam think he found that plane, when obviously someone knew where it was before him? But since no one addressed the whole 'wrong ocean' thing in the newscast, it could just be sloppy writing, too.

But I had fun!

Adrian said...

The whole strength of the show and the reason I like it so much is that everything, I believe, must be explained through rational ideas. I think that there may be electromagnetic experiments and stuff, but that it's a vast conspiracy carried out by regular old humans. To me, it adds to the excitement of learning what the "whole truth" will be, since if they were to just say, "Uh, Jacob did that," then it would be a let down.

Pru's Corner said...

so, i think the theories great but i think the key's in maxwell group username and password, any guesses as to that?! only 10 minutes till show time!!! (here in chicago)

Bolivar Baez (2006-5715) said...

Ehm....do you know that when a plane wreckage is found it gets taken away to get analyzed? So, when they get the plane and find it empty, or with dummies, arent they going to find that suspicious? Believe me, they are not going to leave it on the bottom of the ocean.

Anonymous said...

JacksLostStepKid, actually there are three pictures. The original that the photographer took just before Desmond broke up with Penny, the second is one that sits on a night table at Penny's bedside table, and the third is the one that Naomi had in her book.

I'd really like to hear the answers to the multiple photograph question since that issue has been bugging me for quite a while now.

Anonymous said...

Simply put. Sam was making too much of a fuss regarding the where-abouts of 815 so he was baited and led to a fake crash site to shut him and anyone else up. However, this doesn't explain him seeing and hearing Sonya throughout this ARG. Could she be in room 23? I doubt it. That photo looks "stock" and we will probably never see that person on the show. Looks like the Others have a few "special" ppl working with them or forced to work for them.

Anonymous said...

One more thing...I don't think there actually is a plane in the trench. Wouldn't it be easier to fake the footage???

Adam said...

The plane down there is planted, yes Widmore is part of it, but Talbot was actually baiting Sam into finding it. The goal was to accidentally find the wreckage that Widmore had placed to stop the world from looking for the real 815.

They knew they would never find the black rock, it was an ironic tail chase just to get Sam to find "a" wreckage. This way the world would never have questions that couldnt be answered, and they would never find out about the true whereabouts of the real 815 and black rock etc. (Also Amelia Earhart... she too is suspected on the island *Book Club Amelia* and was also portrayed in 815, and Herarat Aviation = Earhart Aviation, so i suspect we got that as an extra easter egg too out of this, we already had a clue but now we have more to base it on)

Mary said...

But if you were faking either plane parts or footage, wouldn't you do it in the right ocean?

Also Naomi says they found the bodies. Think Widmore planted a plane and bodies? A bit hard, both. Look how much it cost ABC to get that plane to Hawaii. How do you also get bodies, in a mile-deep ocean trench? It's easy to let a plane be missing over the vast Pacific. How do you explain it being in the Indian Ocean? It doesn't add up.

Stefan Stoykov said...

We all agree that Sam was led there by someone.

I do not buy all the conspiracy theory. First i was supporting it ... but it is very hard to fake something like this. And if i was going to do it i would not POINT the coordinates to SAM. I would just find it without him.

Now the 2nd thing is HOW CAN THEY RETURN the bodyes if they are not of the real people? And one more thing - IF THE PEOPLE ARE SENT BY WITHMORE to find the island WHY DO THEY USE the Penny's boat thing. They could have said that they are there just to search something and that they are friendly.........

I just can't put my finger on the connection of all those events. :)

John said...

A few of us came up with theory that thing were duplicated through Time travel when we saw Pennys photo

That was a long time ago. Since then
---we have 2 planes with dead bodies
---We have 2 rabbits from the Orchid video and mention of the Casimir effect(wormholes)
---and we also have more than one Dr Candle running around

Its just not logical to make any conclusions at all so far. But this isnt Starsky and Hutch--its Lost--so a plain old conspiracy is just boring in the context of this magical island

When you think things are being duplicated from one single photo and then other things start getting duplicated later in the season--its not a coincidence

John said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
John said...


May I also add that Candle went out of his way to say he wasnt an actor---which leaves the possibility that he IS an actor and the footage was intended to be deceptive

But the fact remains--we are suppose to entertain the theory of duplicates--anyone can see that

Mary said...

It's the whole looking glass thing- mirrors and reflections. They even said it in the recap - "mirror opposites".

There will be bodies and they won't be too far gone to identify.

The Losties are Bunny #8. (Or was it #15 that got dupicated?)

And Talbot is Sam's secret pal. "You don't know who you're dealing with." He does now!

Maybe Talbot's undercover in Widmore. Maybe he's looking for Cooper for killing his brother(?) Peter and stumbled upon the island/trench mirror mystery. He used Sam to 'find' the plane so his cover isn't blown. ???

JakBlak said...

There is a simple fact that I don't think anyone has mentioned yet. When the plane crashed, there were two main pieces -- the one on the beach and the tail section. We don't get to see much of the plane in the video apart from the tail. If memory serves correctly, the "tail-ies" crashed in the ocean and the survivors were able to swim to the island.

If the wreckage Sam discovered was the actual plane, you would think someone on the Christiane would be able to see any land within swimming distance (even at night). They would definitely be able to ping it with radar. Any nearby land mass should also show up on their chart plotter.

I realize that underwater currents are capable of moving wreckage, but I highly doubt that such currents would be able to move the plane a distance of hundreds of miles over the time that the story has taken place. This leads me to believe what Sam found has been placed there. By whom and why is still up for debate.

Of course, it is possible that this is another of the strange properties the island possesses. Or maybe the camouflaged island theory is true. Time will tell.

Anonymous said...

"Ehm....do you know that when a plane wreckage is found it gets taken away to get analyzed? "

The wreckage wouldn't likely be recovered because of the depth and the size. How would you raise it?

The best you would be able to do is use an ROV to obtain any objects that might have fallen outside the fuselage and take video footage. You certainly wouldn't be able to lift any decomposing bodies from their seats.

For as long as Flight 815 would've been at the bottom of the ocean their flesh would've decomposed to the point of non-recognition. Whatever would've been left would've been sharkbait (Who Ha Ha).

James F. McGrath said...

There is certainly a conspiracy, and so there is no reason to think that the plane really is Oceanic 815. But I wouldn't rule out there being wormholes and timewarps in general just yet.

On my blog I have a thread about LOST and parallel universes you might enjoy...